Dan, thanks - I always do that.
Here is the man himself.
bayesian.org
And here is what we are talking about.
bidug.pnl.gov
You can break it down into Venn diagrams.
Event A = 4 or more down years
Event B = 3 or more down years
Event A (above) is a subset of B => p (A n B)= p(A).
Before 2000 looking at Dow Jones 30 from 1916 - 2000
(I have no more data)
There has been 1 period of 4 or more down years
(1929,30,31,32)
and 2 periods of 3 or more down years
(1939,40,41), (1929,30,31,32)
The probability of 4 down years from 2000 = 1/2.
(Ok I really need more data, I know!)
Not as intuitive as some folks might think.
And definitely not - "It's gotta be an UP year!"
If you want to go long for 1 year on 50/50 odds then good luck to you and all those that sail with you.
If you are being bullish, then please do not claim that statistics are on your side.
Fate, God? Maybe, but definitely not statistics.
"God does not play dice ..." Albert Einstein
I have no idea what game Da Bulls are playing, but I think it could be fun to watch (from a safe distance).
And he was actually wrong.
Einstein that is, not God!
-macavity |
