Ligand (LGND) Breakout! Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!

LGND 194.79

+1.3%

Dec 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Andrew H who wrote (4353)	7/28/1997 7:28:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	of 32384

<<<Glad to hear you spoke to IR and hope you will keep in regular contact with them and keep us informed. Let me get this straight now. When you say the leptin deal is the most "iffy," just what do you mean? You think we will see it in the next couple of months?>>>> The leptin deal is on, but now it sounds like the other end may want more data or info. I thought that the AMGN announcement would move things forward, but now I'm not sure exactly what is required to finalize the deal. It could be finalized soon, or it could drag on. I think that LGND is focusing most of their energy on finalizing the diabetes deal, so my speculation is that it will be announced first. <<You suggest you expect "some major announcements" during the 3 conferences. I notice the plural in "announcements." Does that mean you expect more than one announcement by UBS time in October? Both leptin and diabetes? Also panretin trials and NDA? In this time period? I can only hope you are correct.>> By October I expect to hear about initial diabetes data, a diabetes deal, and results of Panretin Phase III trial. Maybe more (GLX associated progress? or more clinicals or deals). <<You suggest in a previous post more stock dilution. I sure hope that will be at a higher price. I cannot see the stock hitting 30 with any significant dilution near the current price.>> Dilution will come from the ALRI call. I believe at least part of the call will be will in the form of LGND stock. I would have to look at the 10-Q, but I suspect that the stock would be valued by the market price at the time of the call, which I would expect to be significantly hogher than present levels. I think that LGND/AGN can delay the call (for 3 months?) with some cash, but I would think that the call would be in 1Q or 2Q '98. The additional shares would go to ALRI shareholders (I expect AGN to use cash for their $9 million and expect LGND to throw in some cash from the diabetes deal. I expect the diabetes upfront cash and total value will be far greater than any prior LGND deal). The $30.00 stock price for this year is still a bit in the "longshot area" (as noted by several posters on this board) and bets should include appropriate odds (5-1). However, I'll do even odds for hitting $30.00 within a year from today. Henry

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