An interesting analysis from STRATFOR weekly...
If we consider the post-Iraq war world, it is no surprise that
the regional response ranges from publicly opposed and privately
not displeased to absolute opposition. Certainly, Syria, Saudi
Arabia and Iran have nothing to gain from a war that will be
shaped entirely by the United States. Each understands that the
pressure from the United States to cooperate in the war against
al Qaeda will be overwhelming, potentially irresistible and
politically destabilizing. This is not the world in which they
want to live.
…..
Unlike Desert Storm, which was about restoring the status quo ante, this
war is about establishing an entirely new reality.
…
The conquest of Iraq will not be a minor event in history: It
will represent the introduction of a new imperial power to the
Middle East and a redefinition of regional geopolitics based on
that power. The United States will move from being an outside
power influencing events through coalitions, to a regional power
that is able to operate effectively on its own. Most significant,
countries like Saudi Arabia and Syria will be living in a new and
quite unpleasant world.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the regional
powers are behaving as they are. The disintegration of the
European bloc has, however, left them in an untenable position.
The United States will occupy Iraq, and each regional power is
now facing that reality. Unable to block the process, they are
reluctantly and unhappily finding ways to accustom themselves to
it.
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