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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend

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To: Richard Barron who wrote (2371)2/7/2003 11:05:14 AM
From: bob wallace  Read Replies (1) of 2561
 
actually, Annaly has a very good write up of the current interest rate risks at its site (annaly.com), and in fact repeated much of this information when it recently announced its earnings [shortfall].

The risk now is from a combination of very low rates AND heavy refinancing - this combination is largely respnsible for its under performance last quarter. As rates start to rise the refi activity is expected to fall off, and since long rates will likely be rising along with short rates, if not before, it is likely that Annaly will be able to improve its profitability in a rising rate environment. Rising rate environments which result in a decline in profits occur when short rates rise substantially in advance of long rates.
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