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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 51.11-2.1%Nov 13 3:59 PM EST
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To: Icebrg who wrote (7841)2/7/2003 12:09:38 PM
From: keokalani'nui  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
I suggest the need for additional discounts beyond the odds of clinical failure:

1. The nobody-really-has-an-answer discount applicable to anything in the IP portfolio other than COM, practically not quantifiable but contemplating worthlessness within the range.

2. The management pinnochio discount, not being totally truthful about clinical results or conversations with the FDA.

3. The big pharma clinical submarine discount; that is, you unexpectedly learn PFE just announced a 8000-pt expansion study using an existing 2x daily medication in your only indication which just commenced a 150-pt P2b, evaluating safety and efficacy, in an accute setting.

4. Inexperienced executive clueless discount; not able to see or understand what little value the company's platform, drug or service will add. This is elsewhere known as the white heart but empty head discount, and may be the most dangerous one of all.
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