You know, time after time I keep bumping my head into this issue of determinism of Elliott Waves.
Prechter thinks that the waves reflect a law of nature. Onischka, it seems, does not think so. I think that Prechter is right. In his book on Socionomics he says that economists always badmouth trade deficits – but, if you check historically, it would appear that such deficits are GOOD for the economy, because they trend to correlate with periods of expansions and Bull markets. When things are bad, people don’t spend.
On the other hand, of course, you are right, and such accumulated deficits will inevitably lead to a time of reckoning, when the dues will have to be paid. The bigger the party, the larger the bill. The danger at this particular time is that as a society we may not be able to keep up with the payments – and it may all end with a serious socio-economic upheaval.
So, how is one to understand all this? Our Archetypes, the Shadows of Gods, are playing with us. Our unconscious enjoys the party while the good times last, driving us to overinvest, to accumulate debt with abandon, believing that it will all last forever…
We are hard-wired to act this way… and it looks to me that this cycle will keep cycling for as long as there still are cyclists. And every time… we’ll find a multitude of rationalizations. Developing those explanations will always keep all future generations of academics and market “professionals” busy and employed. C’est la vie…
Ol’Ski thinkinghard@Opinionated.com. |
