NDX daily chart showing a falling wedge in play:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[db][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][j6438165,y]&listNum=1
Actually, the OBV indicator shows the wedge quite nicely on that chart. Notice how the old H&S neckline acts as opening support and resistance. Today's candle spanned almost the entire 35-point range of the current falling wedge.
The lower channel is regressing at about 3-points a day, making 948 the low side of the market on Monday without a gap below that channel.
From looking at that chart, I think we need another bounce attempt on Monday that fails and a close on the lows. A bounce Tuesday with a re-test Wednesday could set us up for an options expiration 2-day bounce.
There is a 16-day cycle low due next Friday, so that may need to be factored in. If so, the regressing channel would be around NDX 935 in a week, which is near the .618 Fib re-trace (933) off the 1155 highs from the 795 NDX lows. |
