BSG. I should clarify a few important things
about what I'VE posted and what I've not posted, when and also why.
It's always a little tedious and time consuming to make posts like this. And I'll have to delay responding to other posts from several of my friends. But, I've not posted regularly here in recent weeks. And, it's understandable that some may not be entirely clear on what my gold sector stance has been during that time.
Those who've read my posts with ANY regularity of the 2 1/2 years I've been on SI (almost all of them can be found here or on old SD) know my work is focused on:
1. Getting positioned or into cash as close to important Intermediate Term (i.e. holding specific equities long for 4 weeks OR MORE) trend changes as possible, AND
2. STAYING with the trend till there's strong evidence in my work of another significant trend change.
3. When there's no strong Intermediate trend to ride, I'll usually have substantially more than 50% cash and trade ST here and there when I see a good risk/reward op.
Those familiar with my style know I USUALLY don't predict specific prices, far in advance. I'm NOT saying it can't be done. It's just not essential to the success of my trading style. And if I don't have to do something? I don't. Instead it becomes time to enjoy with the family or in R&R.
So, I never said anything about HUI 100 or $300 gold. I don't know where the bottom will be and it doesn't matter in my DD and trading methodology. As long as the tools I do use can get me there with a truck load of cash and buy within CLOSE to the next bottom? That's enough to make a whole lotta re mi:o)) I should know. Have been doing it for a living since the summer of 1986.
OK. Now let's look at the past 6 to 8 wks. This recent post to my friend valuetrader which includes the url to an earlier one on 1/17 lays out pretty clearly what I've said and done (when I was here at all<g>)
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<<vt.<Disbelief>?
Remember the disbelief when this PM rally began it's big acceleration phase, in early/mid December? Several tried to fade me here in posts at that time, when I announced that I was at my lowest cash position in several years.
Recently, the right side of the market has been to disbelieve and sell into the vociferous exhortations of the PM perma bulls. They ALWAYS roar loudest and most rowdy at significant multi-month Intermediate Term tops.
OR.....to put a finer point on it? :o)) Belief in - The Perma Bull Applause Meter - which to the FEW real contrarians here rendered the final, unmistakable SELL signal.
The first my stuff signaled it was time to start exiting in a serious way was 1/17. Initially, it looked like just a good dip, as the post ref below clearly says. But enough of a dip for me to take Intermediate Term profits on large positions I'd been long - without trading - all the way up from early/mid December.
Message 18458291
Immediately got a little flak for that one. So, what the hoot I said to myself, why not take a week off and let the bullish topping frenzy take it's usual course. Let the kiddies enjoy their 15 minutes of fame:o) So? I stopped posting entirely, for OVER a week, and concentrated on continuing to take profits in the PMs (AND on my gasser kennel).>>
Message 18542490
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Finally, no way I'm calling the end of the LT Bull Market in the PMs or PM stocks, per this recent post to my friend Wayne Agee:
<<Wayne. Yes. LT, I'm a gold bull.
This is just one of those periodic sharp Intermediate Term corrections that are VERY much worth trading for those with the time, skill and experience to play it.
Scary corrections are actually classic bull market fare. They keep the majority of players either under invested or out of the sector entirely until we begin to approach the final LT top. And it doesn't look to me like we're there, yet.
Otherwise I'd have sold my physical gold which is currently appreciated to about 11% of total portfolio value. I trade the stocks (mostly for Intermediate Term holds when Mr Market gives me that holding period<g>)
But my physical stuff is buy and hold. Used the same two part plan during the 1970s bull market in the PM sector, and it worked very well.
Even take the shiny stuff out and look at it now and then. <Good vibs> as we used to say, in the late 60s:$))
All the best,
Isopatch>>
Message 18543712
Hope that covers all the bases and answers everyone's questions. Because frankly? I'm completely outta posting time for the next coupla days.
Have fun, relax and enjoy, folks. Remember, it's only money. Nobody lives forever. And, you can't take it with you:))
Best,
Iso |
