As soon as the majority holds your opinion- we will head up. Total resignation in the public is hard to discern. All I have been able to do for the past year and a half is to discern panic points, and buy them.
Unfortunately only one of those panic points is lower than current prices, so I haven't booked many gains. This too shall pass- and the cyclical bull will rise from the ashes of wall street.
I believe we are building another 'panic point' at present. It should resolve in the next couple of weeks, and it will then be safe to buy- at least for a cyclical upturn. Biggest unknow to me at present is what level it will turn up at. The logical point to turn up would be near last October's lows.
Events have converged on the American public to depress moods severely at present. Snow, cold, rising bills, war and terrorism, economic and employment fears. The govt's Fear Injection on friday certainly isn't helping the bulls either. Fear and depression are conducive to risk contraction instead of risk expansion. Not good for Mr. Market, IOW. It's always darkest just before dawn, however.
To discern the upcoming inflection point- In particular, I'm watching for a VIX spike and reversal, which should follow the already spiked put/call ratio. This should be verified by a reversal in market internals; A/D, NH-NL, and of course price.
>My resolution for 03; Enjoy doing everything else, forget the market. <
I agree with the 1st part- but don't forget about Mr. Market. Opportunity may come knocking, and you'll miss her if you don't answer the door. <g> |
