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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call
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To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1326)2/8/2003 3:24:37 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (2) of 11447
 
you make me look bullish (ggg) on long term stuff

The last two secular bears were 20 and 16 years respectively. So an 18 year secular bear is not "out of line". However I didn't just average the last two.<g> While I have several references for the years, they all boil down to the same thing. The spending pattern of the "typical" family, as the individuals in the family age, is convoluted with the demographics of our population. Although, the studies use differing methodologies to arrive at the critical times, they are not truly independent, since they have the same basic thesis. The '07/'08 date corresponds to a fall in spending associated with aging Boomers; the '18 date comes from increased spending from the Gen Y (echo Boom) demographic bulge. If you want the specific references (I seem to recall UCLA being involved), I'll look them up.

As for your comments on inflation, my experience says inflation has a lot of inertia. While it's slow to get started, once going, it's very difficult to stop. In the last secular bear, inflation peaked near the end, but was rampant long before.

Since my own natural market timescale is much longer than yours, I enjoy watching you (and others) trade. I particularly enjoy the posted "soul searching" and "second guessing" that lie behind the trades. It's the thought process, that is far more important than the specific trades. Don't stop posting.

lurqer
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