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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: dvdw© who wrote (16201)2/8/2003 10:57:39 PM
From: macavity  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
dvdw

You do sound as if you have taken The Ostrich Theory of Investing to another level.

You cannot just IGNORE the market.
Whatever happened to plans?
We are not perfect but that is why we make them surely.
The Market is not predictable but sitting things out does seem like a sure fire way to get things slapped in your face.

It is the old tale of dropping a frog in boiling water, or heating things up gradually.
The Fed and the PTB, by interfereing, have allowed an illusion of calmness and control to enter the market psych. If they would only let the $SPX hit its Head&Shoulders target of 350-450 then I guarantee you will find buyers, and who knows maybe this bear might be on the mend. But they wont! They are meddlers.

There are 2 (from many) differing precedents to the current malaise.
USA1929
Japan1989
In USA1929 the government could not inflate as much or push money supply hence the low was found in 4 yrs.
In Japan89 all the government has done is interefere hence after 12/13 years we are still finding new lows.
You wont be told, but there are 2 choices for this bear
Short and Sharp - US1929, or
Slow and Long - Japan1989.
I am not saying which one is better, but with Sir Alan of Bubbledon at the controls it sure looks like Japan to me.

sayonara

-macavity
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