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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 683.47+0.6%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83671)2/9/2003 3:58:52 AM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
The Fear Factor:
Since last June, I've been charting an indicator that measures fear of terrorism against U.S. citizens domestically, overseas, and U.S businesses here and overseas. It was doing quite well as a 3-5 wk leading indicator until January, when the Market peaked only a wk after the indicator peaked (meaning Fear of Terrorism was at a low ebb). Since its early January peak, the Fear Factor has been declining (meaning fear has been increasing)about one wk ahead of the corresponding move in the Stock Averages. What this implies is that it's not Fear of War, but Fear of Terrorism that's pulling the Market down. The Bush administration tried to go easy on the Iraq/Terrorism connection at first, but polls consistently showed the American public wasn't too thrilled about us invading Iraq if we had no real reason for it. Thus, Bush & company have had to play up the terrorism angle to bolster public support for the invasion already planned for the start of March. Additionally, the invasion of a Muslim country itself by a President who pretty much styles himself as a Christian fundamentalist will probably give rise to retaliatory threats and acts by Islamic fundamentalists. I look for the Market to bottom after the Fear Factor indicator bottoms. The 64000 question: Will it bottom about 1wk later, or 3-5 wks later?
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