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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (18040)2/9/2003 11:18:09 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7  Read Replies (3) of 206121
 
The part of the equation that I left out that could lead some credence to the disconnect is the world ecomony. If you take out China, things are getting worse not better. Look also at the dollar weakness could also lead to soft equity prices.

I have said numerous times, I would rather be long then short in OSX on average, but lately it just is not adding up. Risk is building in all commodities in the energy market, and I donot think US is in IRAQ w/out a plan to save those oil fields.

Worse case scnerio is IRAQ fields sustain limited damage, and then the flood of crude will start. Market currently at 35-37BBL is definitly discounting IRAQ coming of line at some point. From what I read Russia has far too many crude ships frozen in port and cannot get to market. If we get Russia back on line to full loads and Caracas as OPEC opens the spicket, if you add a softening world economy, you could have a serious CRASH in the energy markets products in the next 3 months.

I researched Drilling permits for January of 2001 and compared them to 2003, we are about even. The real question is how long will cold weather last?

Worse case scenerio is as bad as 2001, but look at how quickly the product replenished itself. Also pittraders live and learn. many got caught w. their pants down believing 6-9 crude could sustain itself into the second 1/2 of 2001. Looking at that experience I think NG has another .50 at best in it, perhaps 1. but I really doubt it.

Good luck!
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