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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Funds

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To: Julius Wong who wrote (155)2/9/2003 1:57:02 PM
From: gregor  Read Replies (1) of 5019
 
Hi Julius:
Concerning your gold hypothesis. I just have seen no evidence that the buying public is participating in this gold rally. I think the traders are wanting to draw in the public but it is not happening.
In another sense when you consider the fall of the dollar then gold has mimicked being another currency as if traders were shorting the dollar by buying gold. It really makes no difference which event precipitated the other. I think it is the 40 year low in interest rates in this country that precipitated the fall in the dollar. Also if you make the argument that the lows in the stock market caused the fall in the dollar then you have to give the theory that the dollar sellers were right on about the stock market.
After following the foreign markets for years it has always been my thinking that the exchange rates in currencies usually lessen my gains and lessen my losses. Very few times do I get what I like to call a double whammy or a gain in the foreign market and a gain in the currency also. But for the foreign traders who shorted the dollar and shorted the market at the same time it appears that they have done very well this time around.
But my question is what is to be gained by going long the metal and short the gold stocks..I can see going short the stock market in general and long gold but you have given me a new one to think about.....please explain...Gregor
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