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Robert, I don't really like to play an uptick in a long term down
move, but if you want to gamble, I'd consider Analog Devices. Great
company that will pop if the computer cycle is misinterpreted. I have
had lots of personal attacks and they were actually worse on Prodigy
than here. I like a good argument about stocks or an industry, as
those can get heated, but often make me rethink my opinions and
assumptions. Even some of Thomas Hirsch's. -g-
But when someone says I am just trying to manipulate
a stock or rip off people selling something, it not only ticks me off,
it serves no purpose. Or, when I first posted the fact that many
companies were building Flash capacity and that was a danger to Atmel,
I was surprised by the notes that said I was spreading panic without
stating any facts. Later, I found that is a very standard response
to any bearish note on SI.
Unless you have a notarized letter from the
CEO of the firm, you don't have a fact. -G- As far as your research
question goes, it isn't as tough as you think. Now, some funds, like
AIM, do NO fundamental research. And they brag about it. But I am
a hardcore fundamental contrarian, so that wouldn't work for me.
First, everywhere I've worked had analysts. I always called them
investment private detectives and started my own career as one of
those overworked, underpaid folks. But they ranged from 10 analysts
covering the waterfront at Waddell & Reed to 4 analysts with way too
much to follow at American Capital. A fund manager also has recourse
to any and every analyst on the Street. Though I disagree with most,
as they tend to be trend followers and rarely say a discouraging
word, they are good for laying out the fundamental case, positive and
negative, for a company. So, I always looked first for what was
hated and what was loved in the market, picked out some likely
suspects,
and then contacted either my own or Wall Street analysts for in
depth reports and comments. Then I wrote out a sheet of questions.
Most of the time I called the companies, but sometimes I had one of
analysts do it. Since my questions were often considered hostile,
i.e., they were about the stuff they tried to sweep under the rug and
not about the stuff in the headlines, I liked to ask them myself to
keep my sources friendly with the companies
once I was asked to never call again. -G-
So that is how I did it. I miss the analysts doing the legwork now
and have found the few analysts who still send me their reports have
really declined in the quality and depth of their work. It is not
that they are dumber. They just seem to rely more on company
guidance than in the past. That is risky. MB |
