Everyone keeps saying that.
Consider outcomes:
If US ties a pre-emptive strike on NKorea:
(There was a chance this week to knock out the reactor,
but now there would be radioactive effects.)
The NKoreas would need only 6 minutes to drop a bomb on Seoul and the US base. We would retaliate within minutes,
and hundreds thousands of North Koreans would be dead.
What would be the result of our "victory"? - probably
over 1 million dead in one day.
If US tries a pre-emptive strike on Iraq:
Iraq will unleash small auto planes towards Israel.
I believe it would take at least 1 hour to get there.
Some will probably get through. The US drop bombs on many
sites. Death rates have been estimated as high as 500,000 Iraqis by an non-government source. I am not sure how they get that number, seems high to me. My guess is about half that. However, I would expect that many on all sides will suffer effects of wmd for years.
If US does not try a pre-emptive strike on NKorea:
Worstcase:
NKorea might attack first, same outcome as mentioned above.
Also they will build more wmd and probably export them.
Japan will then probably join the club, on and on ...
Bestcase:
China, Russia, or S,Korea help convince NKorea to change their ways.
If US does not try a pre-emptive strike on Iraq:
Worstcase:
Saddam will continue his wmd programs and will probably get them in the hands of terrorists.
One strategy Saddam will be to build a "modern" Stalinist
power base and then destroy Israel. The other strategy he and others have will be to attack Israel now with the hope that all the Islamic people will rally around and overthrow US allies.
Bestcase:
Saddam is overthrown, (10 years or more waiting for that), or goes into exile.
Neutral case:
Inspections continue and Iraq problem is contained. I am not convinced that is possible.
I don't feel many are facing the realities. Which are not
really good whatever decision is made. I think many feel
if the US ignores the problem it will go away. I think
they are under-estimating the enemy, and if the US did
everything they wanted, they would still want to see
our destruction.
IMO, this is one of the most pivotal moments in history. |
