I don't like the market action today, and one of my timming people is calling for 200% short by Feb. 14. The other timming guy, who has fewer signals, went to all cash about a week ago.
I'm trimming positions, even in natural Gas E&P, because I don't see the stocks breaking through resistance for the next few weeks, even with the good news. There isn't enough sector rotation, just money leaving the market.
These stocks should be moving up, at least grinding their way higher, and they are not. Enough time has past to take care of the delays for recognition of the NG prices, etc.
I see this as negative sign for the whole market, not just energy.
Sold some IPPs too, except RRI. Expect they will get even cheaper over next 2-3 weeks.
I'm keeping the Royalty trusts, since they are grinding higher (slowly, but steadily) and the distributions tend to protect the valuations.
At some point in the near future, the market will puke, come down another 15% or so, and some money will come back.
Not sure how much is tied to Iraq anymore.
This market feels a bit like August of 2001, when Enron was unwinding postions and messing everything up, but allmost nobody knew what was happening. It seems like slower decline and much more 'macro' oriented, however. |
