SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : How to best deal with KOOKS at this web site
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Iceberg who wrote (1014)7/28/1997 10:36:00 PM
From: Gottfried   of 1894
 
Ice, >The article contained fascinating history, but poor advice on how to deal with the future<

That's because there's no free protection. Buy CDs and get
total protection against a bear market - at what cost? But typically
Vanguard and others also have info on degrees of protection. If I
took their age-based advice I'd be 80% in cash.<VBG>

And now a bit of debunking: people say 'you can't have N good years
in the market in a row, because historically blah blah blah...'
That assumes the past good years influence the coming good year.
When I was young I thought I had the perfect scheme to win at Roulette
in Reno: watch until black has come up 5 times in a row, then bet on red. Because the probability of the same color 6 times in a row is
1/2 to the sixth power (about 0.015). Except the roulette wheel has no memory and the sixth time will give red as often as black. Also, we haven't had a big quake since '89 so we're due.<G>

GM
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News