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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (16248)2/11/2003 7:57:00 AM
From: dvdw©  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
In a Supply / Demand market each stock manifests a current state. Any given stock falls into one of four categories; 1. Accumulation 2. Distribution 3. Neutral 4. Obfuscation For years metrics have been used to account for conditions 1 thru 3. Most of those systems had statistical integration schemes built around them evolving into TA trading tools; some of which fall into classes such as Money flow metrics, & OBV ( On Balance Volume).
After years of experimentation; I've found the three original categories, inadequate in the important measure and correlation of price action against the relative constant of Supply.

I chose Obfuscation as the term that best suited the missing condition or the 4th dimension of the market.
Obfuscation is a condition attached to any of the 3 other conditions and works in conjunction with that condition in the current trend.

In bringing Obfuscation to the supply demand equation, what you end up with is the unmasking of the action for what it truly is; the buying , selling or neutral states of any security tell a story about how the market views that security within the context of an objective. Indexing has brought us too a place where all fund managers must own all stocks in a given index in order to be qualified for that index. Because all such funds are competing for investor dollars, their track record becomes wholly tied to the manager or team members ability to weight the portfolio to those securities with the most favorable current trends of performance, short or long.

By introducing Obfuscation to stock analysis, the complete picture of the component index parts can be accounted for and applied across your stock asset allocation weighting for each company in the index.

The accuracy and performance of any constructed portfolio is wholly at the mercy of the current trends of
each component contained therein. Weighting strategy and tactics are directly related to fund or portfolio performance.
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