Zonder - baseless assumptions...
No, not baseless. As I said Sadam had a well defined path left open to him that would have gotten him into a much better place financially and security wise and yet he has chosen to play a continuing confrontational role to the detriment of his country, his military, and himself.
...That I would classified as an irrational behavior.
As for his pathological addiction to not backing down I will point out that he is on record as claiming the Gulf war as a great victory (because the Allies decided not to trash Iraq just to get him). And that he is a modern Saladin.
...Yes this is press coverage and speeches to his people. No, I haven't interviewed him directly. But the coverage and reports are consistent from many different sources and they all say the same thing.
The psychological addiction to WMD - again I point out how irrational he has is currently facing down the barrel of a very big gun being wielded by a somewhat irrational individual. And yet he is still doing his dance. he just can't bring himself to give up the WMD or, if they are destroyed, to throw open the doors and embarrass the crap out of George W(e know) Bush.
Beyond that let me be clear - Sadam is not a madman. He is very cool and calculating. Its just that his objective goes to support his need to be powerful, a force to reckon with. But he doesn't see how his behavior is self defeating.
...BTW - this is not an unusual problem - we all develop self defeating idea at one time or another. The more emotional stress we grow up under, the worse the problems tend to be. For Sadam it was growing up as an unwanted child in a dirt poor family that has been fed by decades of successes. The whole field of cognitive behavioral therapy is built around this problem.
<<financial carrots won't work>> Funny - you disagree with that statement and then go on to offer not financial incentives but survival as an incentive.
...But you are right, when Sadam feels that he can lose his grip on power he does back down. Which is what kept chemical weapons out of the Gulf war.
...But the psychological ploy that the US used to protect the US citizens that he had rounded up as human shields was that that was not the actions of a true Arabian Knight. 24 hours after that was pointed out to him he released the detainees (As reported by the US ambassador to Iraq).
...He can be reasoned with as long as you understand his (ir))rationality. Something which we both agree has escaped an similarly (ir)rational Bush.
(Whats more dangerous than an idiot with nuclear weapons? Two idiots with nuclear weapons)
...And no - I will not get trapped into a debate about how it is in the interest of the US to invade Iraq. If for no other reason than it assumes that I endorse the invasion - when, in fact, I have serious concerns about that course of action.
...Rather let us discuss what the various options are. I have already mentioned one - to cater to his psychological need to be important in the eyes of the world. Is there a way to a position where giving up WMD makes him stronger, not weaker? Was Saladin more than just a warrior, was he also a peacemaker? (i.e. - can we co-opt rather than confront?)
...Or we can discuss the urgency of his threat - is he working with Al Qaida and poised to strike at any moment? Or is he limited to his armies which are effectively boxed in by the existing sanctions. Or is he working towards the ability to threaten with missiles - which might need an immediate but limited response? |
