Maybe if you tap you little red bowling shoes together three times while repeating the phrase "There's no science like pseudo science", Ziscam will also prove to be the first cure for smallpox:
Dark Smallpox Winter
The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, February 11, 2003
Ask a Bush Administration official privately about the chances of another
terror attack on the U.S., and the answer invariably is 100%. That's only
one of
the reasons it's troubling that health-care unions and many hospitals are
resisting precautionary vaccination for smallpox.
The Bush smallpox vaccination program was supposed to be completed by the
end
of this month, yet so far only 700 of 500,000 emergency workers have
received
shots. Two of the nation's largest health-care unions are actually urging
members to refuse vaccinations until the feds cough up special
"compensation."
(They are the Service Employees International Union and the American
Federation
of State, County and Municipal Employees.) And any number of hospitals have
refused to let first-responders take part in the first phase of the smallpox
plan, partly because they say it will cost too much.
These outfits should spend a few minutes reading some of the bioterror
documents that have influenced Administration decisions. One in particular
noted
recently by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is an account of "Dark
Winter," a
war game hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense
Strategies
in 2001. Its name certainly fits the outcome.
Dark Winter posed a realistic scenario in which 3,000 people were initially
infected with smallpox -- possible with just 30 grams (a little over one
ounce)
of weaponized virus. It assumed each person infected 10 others -- a
conservative estimate given that there has never been an outbreak in such a
dense, mobile, unvaccinated population as today's U.S.
In the simulation, 12 members of the National Security Council are informed
that smallpox has broken out: 20 cases confirmed in Oklahoma, with reports
of
more in Georgia and Pennsylvania. (They will later discover it was released
in
three shopping malls.) They are told the facts: Smallpox has a 30% fatality
rate, there is no treatment, and it spreads from person to person. The
country
maintains just 15.4 million doses of vaccine.
The NSC chooses to vaccinate only essential personnel and anyone who has had
contact with the infected, a strategy known as ring vaccination. By six days
into the epidemic, 2,000 cases have been reported in 15 states, with 300
deaths. The disease spreads to Britain, as well as Canada and Mexico, which
demand U.S. vaccine serum. Only 1.25 million doses remain, and their
distribution becomes violent.
International borders are closed, and food shortages follow. In many states
the
public health system is overwhelmed and care deteriorates. Civil liberties
are
suspended: Schools close, some public gatherings are forbidden, states limit
travel. Drug companies can't make more vaccine for five weeks.
By 13 days in, 16,000 cases are reported in 25 states -- 14,000 in the past
24
hours alone. One thousand people have died and 10 countries have outbreaks.
The
vaccine is gone, the economy is faltering and residents are fleeing infected
areas. A panicked public demands forcible quarantine of victims and their
contacts, though by this time that has become logistically impossible.
Then comes the blackmail. Newspapers receive a letter demanding the removal
of
U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf within a week. The letter
threatens a new smallpox attack, combined with anthrax and the plague, if
the
U.S doesn't comply. It contains a genetic fingerprint matching the smallpox
strain, proving its veracity.
Dark Winter's simulation ends at this point, though by the time the virus
runs
its course the U.S., in a worst-case scenario, faced three million cases and
one million deaths. Much of what the country values -- civil liberties,
world
power, economic security, access to health care, equal treatment under the
law
-- has been damaged along the way.
The point here isn't to scare people . . . well, maybe it is; 15 months
after
the anthrax attacks, bioterror is a real threat. Protecting against smallpox
in
advance may make it less likely that an enemy would resort to its use. Dark
Winter also underscores how vulnerable U.S. society will remain even with
precautions, meaning that the best homeland defense continues to be taking
the
battle to terrorists abroad and to the states that harbor them.
As for union objections, the Bush Administration is preparing a compensation
fund for anyone injured by the vaccine. But keep in mind that emergency
workers
already have insurance and worker's comp, and that health-care workers are
already exposed to unusual risk of germs and illness as part of their daily
lives.
No homeland defense plan will work without the cooperation of all Americans,
especially its leading institutions. The unions and public-health officials
resisting smallpox vaccination will have a lot to answer for if there is an
attack and Americans remain unprepared. |
