U.S. hydrogen demand to reach 14,454 billion cubic feet by 2007, report says
Feb. 11, 2003 -- Hydrogen is the most abundant and lightest element on earth. It is a very stable molecule and not particularly reactive under normal conditions.
However, at elevated temperatures and with the aid of catalysts, it undergoes numerous chemical reactions, forming compounds with virtually every other element. This makes hydrogen an important industrial commodity chemical constituent.
The use of hydrogen for petrochemicals, agrochemicals and renewable energy production will make rapid advances in the next five years as even more stringent environmental legislation is enforced, according to a recently updated report from Business Communications Co. Inc.
High purity transportation fuels may become mandatory, and harmful chemical emissions will be drastically cut. Hydrogen can offer petroleum refiners, specialty chemical manufacturers and automakers the flexibility they need to meet international agreements for cleaner products, the report stated.
According to the report, "RC-219R Hydrogen as a Chemical Constituent and as an Energy Source," the total U.S. hydrogen demand will increase by a factor of 1.32, from 10,963 billion cubic feet in 2002 to 14,454 billion cubic feet in 2007. This increase will be equivalent to an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 5.7%.
Bulk "captive" applications (petrochemicals/agrochemicals production) will continue to represent the largest demand for hydrogen. In 2007, this category will amount to 93.2% of total hydrogen demand, i.e., 13,468.5 billion cubic feet. This compares to 93.8% in 2002 or 10,293 billion cubic feet.
Over the forecast period therefore, hydrogen demand for petrochemical/agrochemical production will grow at an AAGR of 5.5% driven by new environmental legislation for clean transportation fuels that will become effective in January 2007.
Merchant hydrogen will also show increased demand over the forecast period, rising from 669.9 billion cubic feet in 2002 to 985.5 billion cubic feet in 2007. This increase will correspond to an average annual growth rate of 8.0%. Merchant hydrogen demand has been further divided into two categories: industrial demand and renewable energy demand.
Industrial hydrogen demand will increase from 479.5 billion cubic feet in 2002 to 743.7 billion cubic feet in 2007 corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 9.2% over the next five years to 2007. This is up from a 5.3% average annual growth rate between 1999 and 2002.
This growth comes as increasing quantities of hydrogen are consumed by food and drinks processing, and as a reducing atmosphere for metals manufacturing. Furthermore, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a reduction in sulfur content in gasoline to 30 parts per million by 2004, with diesel to follow. Refineries will increasingly turn to merchant suppliers for peak shaving, production trials and plant start-up procedures.
Renewable energy hydrogen demand will increase from 190.4 billion cubic feet in 2002 to 241,8 billion cubic feet in 2007. This increase will correspond to an average annual growth rate of 4.9% over this forecast period, up from the 0.9% AAGR recorded between 1999 and 2002. The National Space and Aeronautics Administration (NASA) will continue to consume large quantities of liquid hydrogen as construction of the international space station reaches its climax.
Furthermore, commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells already is underway and by 2007, BCC estimates that more than 1,000,000 vehicles fueled by hydrogen will be operating throughout the United States. This will increase the market value of hydrogen for renewable energy production.
Source: Business Communications Co. Inc. bccresearch.com |
