NFI is a long story that I will keep short here. I stopped out of my last shares yesterday; I would certainly buy them back under 25. It's a great company with great results and a VERY erratic chart thanks to the short attacks from Rocker and Greenberg et al.
Mortgage REITs are a complicated business. NFI originates mortgages with its own capital, bundles them up and sells them off later, keeps some, insures some of those it keeps, etc. The wild cards are origination volumes, interest rates, rate hedges, default rates, portfolio quality, private mortgage insurance availability and rates, and accounting policies for all of the above.
If you believe NFI's books they are making tons of money and paying out most of it in dividends like REITs do. If you believe Greenberg, the accounting is funny and doesn't represent real cash flow.
I believe NFI myself. Greenberg attacks a lot of companies and gloats when he gets one right. He just ignores the wrong calls (a lot like our favorite Mr. Pink). Folks who know much more about how MREITs work than Greenberg think NFI is very, very solid.
That said, the chart requires too much dramamine to buy and hold in any significant size. So I will flit in and out. Buying under 25 and selling over 30 is a pretty sound strategy given the chart.
In addition to the NFI stop, I am long ING again from 14.40. Also playing the chart there and looking to sell at 16-17. |
