Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call

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To: LTK007 who wrote (1903)	2/12/2003 8:01:42 PM
From: Chris McConnel	Read Replies (2) of 11447

If everybody knows that the United States plans to invade Iraq within the next 30 days, and everybody knows that stocks will explode higher when the cruise missiles launch, then why the heck hasn’t the market stabilized already as smart money floods in to anticipate the inevitable? The answer appears to be twofold: Under-the-radar buying by the smart money is keeping the market from declining farther, faster. But the smart money isn’t purchasing with abandon because it doesn’t buy the consensus view that the start of war will kick off a sustained bull market. The view among veteran investors who have played the bear market correctly so far is that an American invasion of Iraq will end the uncertainty over when and whether hostilities will begin, kicking off a “relief rally” in equities likely to last one to six weeks. But they believe that this speculative advance is unlikely to spell the end of the millennial bear market, and it should ultimately be considered an opportunity to unload stocks rather than to load up. moneycentral.msn.com

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