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To: Gottfried who wrote (1017)	7/29/1997 1:22:00 AM
From: Bill Ulrich	of 1894

I liked #2, btw... By the time a bear market is identifiable - it's far too late to have made an effective response. I wonder if the economy sometimes falls into conditions conducive to a bear market without having a smoking gun catalyst which triggers it, thus no bear market. That would really make sense for some of these years where the 'indicators' say Armageddon is around the corner (but never quite gets here). It also works well with Ice's #2 statement. Was the Arab Oil Embargo a catalyst of the '73 bear? Any other identifiable incidents? Did anybody notice that the '87 crash happened at the start of the recovery period according to the Vanguard article? Did it really happen that way? -MrB

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