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Technology Stocks : Macromedia...making a comeback?

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To: Martin Olsen who wrote (1567)7/29/1997 2:15:00 AM
From: Bill Ulrich   of 2675
 
Martin, after I discussed some Director processes and
how portions of multimedia relate to MACR and IOM,
"About 80% of this work is done with a Mac using Director,
the multimedia authoring standard."
(this was back on the
IOM thread, if anybody is confused)

you had asked me:

Do you own MACR? What do you think of the company's prospects?

No I don't (but I own plenty of their products). I'm not
particularly comfortable with the company's prospects, but
has more to do with the shaky ground of the multimedia industry
rather than any particular problems with MACR itself.

The traditional CD-ROM industry is quickly fading/transforming
depending on which word you prefer. Most of the people I work
with in the industry agree that it's headed into a web based
market and this affects what will happen with Director's usage.

With CD-ROMs, you don't really author with anything else other
than Director. That was a pretty good lock for MACR, but the
web is utilizing so many other technologies that people are
exploring other avenues to get things done. It would be naive
to think that Shockwave (and therefore Director) will have as
much 'web' grip as Director did with traditional CD-ROM authoring.

The industry is in some confusion...Red Herring, a respected
technology/business magazine reported something like 90% of
multimedia companies being in the red last year. I see the
effects continually as more companies in this area (SF Bay
Area) restructure/close. Over the past year and a half,
companies that were seen to be among the strongest have
diminished in the field -- Arnowitz Studios and ION here
in Marin. Even my own previous company -- 'downsized'...no
more offices, no more employees, no more equipment, but it's
really just a downsizing according to the owner.

MACR is doing the right things with their products regarding
internet implementation, but the market itself is still
figuring out where it wants to go.

MACR may do just fine, but personally the risk is too much
for me. I think I can do just as well with something safer.
That's why I chose IOM. It, too, can be troublesome to those
with heart conditions, but the market it caters to is more solid.

When comparing two stock issues, it is unfair to use only one
time frame, or to use a few time frames close together. Thus,
the following 100 Day, 6 month, 1 year, and 2.5 year comparisons
explain why I chose an alternative to MACR. Of course, past
performance is not a future indicator, but it does give me a
little peace of mind when thinking about risk vs. return.

100 Day:
magneticdiary.com
6 month:
magneticdiary.com
1 year:
magneticdiary.com
2.5 year:
magneticdiary.com

MACR's other products are great...just like Director. Still,
it doesn't mean much to me. Is Freehand making a serious
inroad to Illustrator sales? I don't know, but every graphic
firm I visit in the Bay Area loves their new copy of Illus 7.0
My choice to use Macromedia products but not the stock is merely
for my own personal comfort. I'm worried enough about my industry,
so any other headaches about stocks would put me under.

Good Luck to You
-MrB
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