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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Larry S. who wrote (712)2/13/2003 2:31:54 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

I'm a little late in posting the Barron's GMI bit but I will cover the past two weeks here and hopefully I will get up to date this weekend. I been busy and may well have missed something but I didn't notice any significant mentions of PMs in the past couple of week's Barron's. However, I'm sure there will some comment about the hit they took the past few days in the next issue. We will see.

Kitco's intermittent update of lease rates has been frustrating and their 30 day chart isn't consistent with updates they have provided. However, it is clear that a significant number of the sales that occurred during the hit that gold took the past few days were leased gold. If the POG recovers, as it appears to have started, I suspect some of those that leased and sold will pass the next time around and one of these days, I suspect soon in months, there won't be anyone willing to lease and sell. Then and only then will the covering of the short position created by the carry trade cause the spike in price that many of us have been expecting.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 01/30, the Barron's GMI was at 496.02, down from the previous week's 502.59. With the POG up at
367.50 (01/31), the ratio was down at 1.35.

On 02/06, the Barron's GMI was at 489.36, down from the previous week's 496.02. With the POG up at
373.25 (02.07), the ratio was down at 1.31.

The ratio a year previously was 1.30.

Cheers,
Larry
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