bert ["This gold pop has no legs IMO...looks done by end of today or tomorrow at the latest..it's being shorted.."]
...agreed .
Look at both the 60 day & 1 Year POG Charts.
- classic head & shoulders early-formation here...(that MUST be anticipated vs. reacting to - later) and given how both Oil & Gold were sold off into the 1st Gulf War...shame, shame, shame on anyone lame on the Profit Taking Trigger here of late.
If anyone out there can not see - that this "I'm in, no I'm out.... uh oh, new headline; I'm back in; oops, it sold off, another new headline - I'm back out"...skittishness in the HUI & POG here of late is not clear evidence that the momenteum traders & speculators are getting dumped on by the Early-Arrival Smart Money Gold Bulls - you need to just buy mutual funds, send them $ "x" per month and forget about trading.
Those Early to this cycle and those who see it for what it is...are offloading all the stock any of these mo-mo boys, and all the contracts all of the spec's in the Bullion Market want to buy...
1. HUI disconnected from the run to NEW higher-highs in POG = bad, very, very bad sign.
2. HUI rolled over at the same, near one year old 150-154ish resistance range for the 2nd time = bad, very, very bad sign.
3. Given the ongoing escalation of bad news - ie:
- heightened US Terrorism Security Alert
- new Tape from Bin-Hidin'Laden
- contracting broad markets looking to go to new lows
- ongoing negative economic news
- War days away in Iraq - Korea banging the Nuclear Drum etc
- ever weakening USD
- gaping US Deficit
...that POG rolled over & that the unhedged/HUI Gold Stocks anticipated that rollover - disconnecting early from the POG ride - is a Trading 101 - WAKE UP call to stop & smell the "reality" coffee.
THAT "action" is NOT what new Higher-Highs, nor MegaCycle-Bull Markets are made of.
If POG can't go any higher than a 25 year-ish median positive price for Gold + a $20ish War/Hedge premium & Gold stocks can not break thru nearly a year old HUI 150-154 resistance level & go to NEW HIGHS - with War in Iraq, Heightened Terrorist Risk/Alerts, a crashing US Dollar, Ramping Oil Prices, a Broad Market looking to go to new lows, rising deficits, new Bin Laden tapes/threats etc...
- the Market is trying to tell you something !
The question begs to be asked...if GOLD/Gold Stocks can not break thru resistance here - with all of these incredible catalysts - when will it ?
Will there ever be a larger menu of positive Gold Catalysts on the horizon, than we have here presently ?
Has there been in the last 25 years ?
Actually ole' Steve Forbes has had as good a read on the market, the economy & Gold prices - as ANY economist, analyst, or market pundit out there.
I'd re-read his recent piece in Forbes, that I linked earlier.
Maybe America is stronger AND more resilient than we all give her credit for...and maybe we're closer to turning the ship (with the right Captain) than many think ?
Then, there's Sinclair:
Jim Sinclair; who is bright, articulate and has a lot of very good points and whom I've enjoyed reading...has imho; lost much, much credibility here - as he's become a Pom-Pom Waving Cheerleader who in "this" Gold Cycle - OBVIOUSLY possesses a HUGE self-serving beneficial interest in "pumping up the volume" of this "Mega-Cycle/Armageddon Gold Bull" Story - and given his "I'm going to take my "Cheerleading Gold Bull-ball" and leave - actions vis a vie - Prechter's interview being posted on Puplava's site...along with what was a poorly thought out & terribly inane PR Release about his "I-N-T-E-N-T-I-O-N-S" to buy more TNX.TO stock.... not only begs contrarians to turn and short the living $hi! out of TNX.TO - but, to also dismiss anything further he has to say about "this" Gold Cycle - as just more self-serving BS.
These huge sentiment fractions that occur at key transition points in cyclical commodity-cycles; are unmatched for accuracy, or timing, by ANY other form of TA, or FA.
- and we just had a helluva classic "gem" here of late....it was a classic "Deja-Vu - all over again" sentiment indicator - just as we had on the last Nat Gas & OSX/Oilpatch Cycles.
* One 3-part question for the "New Paradigm-MegaCycle Gold Bulls" out there:
- WHO offloaded the massive amount of Gold Stocks last May/1st of June 2002 - that led to the HUI crashing 40% in 7 weeks ...and WHY ?
- WHO just offloaded the massive amount of GOLD Stocks that kept the HUI from following Bullion to $380 here of late ?
- WHY didn't the Commercials even "blink" here on this POG run to $380 into the face of ramping spec longs ?
...and wasn't $352 supposed to bring the entire Gold-Carry Trade/Derivatives Bubble crashing down already ?
It not only didn't bring it down - it led to MORE shorting...and POG & Gold Stocks, both rolled over into the greatest depth & breadth of positive underlying catalysts for POG in 25+ years ?
...actually the WHO question is rhetorical (should be anyway) and it's the WHY question - that should actually be haunting those dreamers still holding the "Visions of 1980 $800 Gold Sugarplums " right here, right now...
* Take what the market gives you...especially when it hands it to you on a Silver Platter *
Pigs get Fat & Hogs always get Slaughtered...always have, are going to again, shortly; & always will...guarandamnteed. |
