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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: shadowman who wrote (28116)2/13/2003 6:08:48 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
["John Bollinger was just on CNBC...he stated that he thinks that "Gold's time as a safe investment haven is over"...he based his opinion on recent market activity...ie: charts."]

...the "MegaCycle Gold Bulls" see only what they want to see in the charts...and that's the problem.

Sinclair - showed an unacceptable degree of emotion with his tantrum & exodus from Puplava's 1st Class - FAIR & BALANCED site.

Threadsters here have also shown an unacceptable degree of EMOTION in their commentary as well.

When so many are still in; based on sooooo much EMOTION - cut on a dime & turn against them EVERY DAMN TIME and you'll make money - period.

60 day & 1 year POG chart show textbook/classic Head & Shoulder's Top's beginning to potentially form.... and given:

1. The Classic War/Hedge pop that Gold/Goldstocks undeniably got here -

2. The Unprecedented 25 year+ high, in the depth & breadth of positive catalysts for Gold -

3. The Very positive media sentiment towards GOLD - Gold is NOT a secret here any longer folks....hell, gold funds are all you see on every single Top Performing Mutual Fund List, all the "Shark" Gold Futures Trading Radio Spots & ads are blasting all over the media and we've just seen a 2+ year, 3.5 Bagger Run in the HUI index and a 50% run in Gold Bullion.... THAT my friends is a helluva nice 2 year+ move for Gold....take it; be happy, be fat...hell be "PHAT" too...

Cyclicals are ALL about - ANTICIPATION..... looking at those 60 day & 1 Year POG charts ...and ANTICIPATING that they are lining up for a textbook Head & Shoulders Top/Rollover....and especially exiting in ANTICIPATION of such; given the returns that are hanging out there in the wind folks... and someone, anyone...please tell me the last time there was a 3.5 Bagger Indice Run in a Cyclical Commodity that shouldn't have been sold at the first hint of ANY disconnection to higher-highs in the underlying commodity... especially in which the stocks failed to take out near year old resistance levels...ie: ANTICIPATING a potential DOUBLE TOP ?

Go back and look at how the last 2 HUI runs played out people:

#1.

Oct 1997 - HUI 156
- less than 3 mos later:
Jan 1998 HUI 83
- nearly a 50% crash in 1 single quarter.

#2.
June 4 2002 - HUI 154
- less than 7 weeks later:
July 26th - HUI 92
a 40% crash in 7 weeks.

Commodity Cyclicals do NOT wait for people to "react"...you either ANTICIPATE....or you give most, if not all of it back....and pray for anyone who buys just one dip too many, let alone the trader that keeps averaging down - mere days/weeks after the actual Top is in...because the HUI has shown "Hogs" the "trap door" exit...time & time again.
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