But then again..
Red Alert! Red Alert!
Paul Weyrich of the Christian Right urges the investigation of funding sources behind "neo-Communist" groups involved in the anti-war movement.
Quick Draw
Will Bush End the Debate By Starting the War Now?
John Prados is a senior analyst with the National Security Archive in Washington, DC. His current book is Lost Crusader: The Secret Wars of CIA Director William Colby
Washington is a town of intense speculators, and the question of the hour is, 'When will the war begin?' I hope I'm wrong, but upon reflecting on the day's news, sooner makes more sense than later.
America faces a deepening morass of diplomatic and political obstacles to a war against Saddam Hussein. The projected new round of bargaining at the United Nations is unlikely to produce a resolution the administration likes. The American public is growing increasingly restive at the possibility of war. Prolonging the period of prewar preparations only boosts the chances that the intricate web of Bush administration maneuvers will miscarry or be blocked, while the growing seriousness of the North Korean nuclear crisis threatens to cast Bush's Iraq plan in an absurd light.
How to short circuit these headaches and cut to the chase? Go now!
This fear may be mine alone, but it comes laden with an increasingly long list of suspicious indicators.
The Washington Post reports that U.S. special operations troops are now active inside Iraq, and may have been there for a month already. Obviously, soldiers are not sent into harm's way if diplomacy is the game of the day.
Thanks to vague but alarming terrorism warnings from the U.S. government, Americans are in some way "ready" -- if you can call it that -- to cope with an adversary response. The news reported a run on duct tape and plastic sheeting after the Department of Homeland Security issued advice on building a 'safe room' at home. And with a three-day weekend coming up, American cities -- particularly central Washington -- will be less crowded and less vulnerable. A Saturday attack would also put the war's start outside the usual news cycle, giving U.S. leaders a temporary reprieve from media scrutiny.
Gen. Tommy Franks, the U.S. theater commander, is en route to Central Command's forward headquarters in Qatar, which will position him to lead an operation. The Muslim Hajj ends on February 13, which will foreclose the danger Bush might transgress Islamic religious mores, particularly if operations began after nightfall on Friday, the Muslim holy day.
On February 14, United Nations weapons inspectors will present a new round of reports, expected to be even more pessimistic than earlier ones. National Security Adviser Condolezza Rice flew to New York on February 11 to meet with chief inspector Hans Blix, no doubt to buttress the Bush case for war. Finally, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's February 13 testimony on Capitol Hill focused on planning for postwar Iraq, which suggests that the military campaign itself is already considered a done deal in high quarters.
On the Iraqi side, the presence of the U.N. inspectors have forced the government to disperse and hide whatever weapons of mass destruction Saddam may possess. In other words, he's as unprepared for war as he's been since the inspections resumed, which will delay Iraq in concentrating weapons for any immediate reaction. With news of U.S. military activity inside Iraq already in progress, the Iraqis may fast-track their plans for a scorched-earth campaign. It would be vital for the United States to short-circuit this effort. For Washington to delay now would only hand Saddam more needed time. The U.N. inspectors can be ordered out of the country on a few hours notice.
The American-British deployment of troops, though far from complete, is now reaching a critical mass. The United States has in place the full 3rd Infantry Division, plus major Navy and Marine forces, some of which are about to conduct a large-scale amphibious exercise, good cover for an actual invasion. The British 7th Armored Division will complete its movement to Kuwait shortly, and other U.S. units are following behind, including the 101st Air Assault Division with its vital helicopter assets. The U.S. forces believe combat at night is advantageous; the moon begins its darkening phase on February 19, affording General Franks the maximum period for night fighting. Bush administration officials have long spoken of a "rolling start" to any Iraq war, and this arrangement looks very much like one.
I'm no alarmist, but the president has been rattling his sabre since last summer. The current confluence of events suggests to me that he may be ready to use it. Right now.
tompaine.com
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