Al >My basket is still positive, suggesting to me the last $10 move down is temporary.
There could another explanation --- namely that the gold shares are cheap in comparison to the gold price.
Let's compare Goldbug Index (HUI) with POG. The chart (below) shows that the HUI has fallen, since early January, from 152 to 135 (-11%). During this time POG went up from $350 to $380+ and back to $350 again. Notwithstanding the volatility in the gold price, the argument is that the HUI is still cheap by comparison to the gold price.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][ill14!le12,26,9]
quotes.ino.com
Thus others would contend that, because the gold shares are cheap in comparison to the gold price, notwithstanding that the gold price has fallen, the gold shares are in fact predicting that the gold price is due for a further fall rather than a rise.
On the other hand, you could be right! Observing the impact between the gold price and its lower Bollinger Band gives the impression that the gold price may have hit a temporary low.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][ill14!le12,26,9] |
