January Effect 2003 Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (144)	2/16/2003 4:01:09 PM
From: Londo	Read Replies (2) of 666

I think the "Blix influence" was too transient for the bond market lately - Friday was a very volatile day. I remember the Thursday where people heavily sold off the futures above 114 (I managed to catch it short then, but quickly sold off for the profit in the mid 113's). But my instinct tells me that the people that believe the resistance at 114 will hold need to be flushed out in the biggest "fake" break-out in the bond markets - which makes me suspect that we might see the 30-Year hit 115-116 before finally beginning it's journey down to 100-105. Not to mention the effects of opening up the 30-year treasury auction again. About the Euro, I'm a little mixed. France/Germany stand to get very hurt out of the Iraq conflict, but with the US trying to inflate the currency, it's a tough call. If the US has room to raise interest rates in the future, than the Euro might even be a good short. Still mixed on the currency. Japanese Yen would be looking so good right now if the country didn't have a debt/GDP of 3248409327%! The country is almost as insolvent as its banking system.

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