January Effect 2003 Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003

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To: Londo who wrote (145)	2/16/2003 4:31:44 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) of 666

Regarding the Euro/USD, and the EUR debt, fact is that Euro debt is still being bought by the pro's even at these levels (10Y-Eur hit 3.92%, and the target is 3.6% to 3.75%), while the EUR currency appears to have little resistance until 1.15/1.19 now. The effect on EUR (finance ministers stating there is no debt problem) together with a dimmed money demand and outlook for continental Europe contributed to the rallye much more than I ever thought (see last years posts). The ECB will cut the EUR interest rate not later than March, and the MM futures are pricing in a cut higher than 25bp (some comments point out that a ECB cut to 2.25% should be done in one step rther than two). I agree that impact of events like the powell, blix speeches are always transient but, for quants, they are important tests to calculate the betas on more than marginal movements. I like them too, they help me get out of sour positions...sometimes.

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