Hello Elmat, I continue to believe there will be an Iraqi war, certainly before the end of this year, most likely before the end of Spring, because:
(a) Too much political, military, economic and ego capital have been put on the line by US and UK to not do it;
(b) And if the the US and UK have to do it, they have to do it soon, because of holding cost, summer heat, and political/military morale drop over long holding period;
(c) If the US does not do it, with or without UK and the rest of Nato or Nato rogues, all credibility with N.Korea is lost;
Whereas N.Korea does not have oil, or cash, it has what oil and cash can buy.
The most fortunate thing for all in the world to happen is if Saddam die an otherwise death to make matters convenient.
The oil future is saying 'there will be a war, and then Iraqi oil will free flow';
The gold market is saying 'there will be no war, and therefore no need for war premium'; and
The equity market is saying 'peace on earth, for all times, starting now'.
At least one of the three markets is wrong. Correctly determining the wrong market is now of the utmost importance.
So, difficult step by hesitant step, ignore the markets, filter out the noise, tune out the chants, focus on the truth, despite of the facts, think, reflect, decide, and then act, in accordance with the truth.
Oh, yes, and then figure out how that impossible N.Korea situation will play out.
If we cannot figure out how Iraq and N.Korea will play out, what chance do we have in figuring out B, B, and R ;0?
Chugs, Jay |
