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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call

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To: LTK007 who wrote (2612)	2/17/2003 9:00:46 AM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (3) of 11447

max, Nice charts. Looks like a 21% gain from Oct lows. Slope of this new decline and percentage of this new decline are less than either July or Oct. Imo, you need to filter out Sept 01 decline as exogenous and not the same animal. Because of the gentler slope and less absolute percentage decline from previous high, makes me think this bounce will not be as strong as from the July or Oct lows. My research indicates most significant market bottoms are usually identified by a large number of new lows. But in the current case prices will have to fall below Oct lows before the number of new lows will begin to expand significantly. But the percentage of stocks above their 30 day moving averages has dropped to about the same levels as happened in Oct 02. So to me looks like we will have a bounce but the probabilities suggest that it will not be as strong as either July or Oct and also suggest that it will not be the start of a significant and lasting market advance. A trader's dream<g>.

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