Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: isopatch who wrote (28162)	2/17/2003 10:29:16 AM
From: Arik T.G.	of 36161

Market Comments S&P ST trend - UP IT trend - Unknown LT trend - Down Looks like the S&P is correcting for the entire leg from the Jan High. Unfortunately, there are many resistance levels : 837 - minimal Fib. 840 - 13 dMA (last visited on 1/16) 843 - Most recent local high 846 - Elaborate fib. calculation for the ST up move 848 - Down trend 855 - 38.1% Fib. My guess is that 846 will block the ST up move and will require a test of the high 820s (maybe low 820s) before heading for the final target of the correction. NASDAQ - IT trend change ? ST trend - UP IT trend - UP ? LT trend - DOWN As weird as it may sound (to me) the chart is pointing to a possible big rally that will take out the 12/2 high. This rally should take 1-3 months and make the second leg of the correction that started last October. Target around 1550 in the Naz Composite. One big support for this scenario is the SOX, which had a big white day after a series of 10(!) small bodies. From the 1/29 local high the Naz had a pretty clear formation of three overlapping waves each made of two thrusts down. Usually this formation is associated with the famous Ending Diagonal pattern that completes a long and strong trend. I have found that at times this formation also ends C of correction. OTOH - in the less likely event of the Naz making a new local low (below 1262 print, 1277 close) soon, there should be a dramatic increase in the rate of decline - a semi crash move. ATG

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