Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1859135

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.065

+1.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Haolin Ni who wrote (46)	7/29/1997 10:57:00 AM
From: Rick Strange	of 645

Haolin, I do not know the production cost or profit margins and I doubt if even AVIR has more than estimates at this time. Traditionally margin are small for vaccines because of competitive pressures. The cost of the vaccine usually represents only about 20% of the cost to administer the vaccination. Aviron's vaccine is easier to administer and may not require the service of a health care professional which should relate into savings for the health care industry warrenting a premium price. Also, if the vaccine is given to children, the overall insidence of flu will drop throughout the general population. During flu season 9-20% of medical visits are people with flu like symptoms. If you can eliminate these visits, third party providors will save billions. Long term, I think that AVIR is undervalued. I don't know what will happen after the 2+million share offering is completed. If the offering is substantially over subscribed, the price will go up. If the reception is lukewarm, expect the price to drop after the underwritting syndicate breaks-up.

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