P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (28248)	2/17/2003 4:04:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 30712

My favored would be another up day tomorrow, a doji day on wednesday, and a dump into Friday followed by a rally the following week to the above mentioned targets. We'll see if that transpires. Dump into Friday followed by an immediate up move does not seem to make that much sense. Why would they close under max pain just to take it back up after expiry. Your scenario makes sense if we rally above max pain, but then we would have a delta hedging melt-up most likely. Thus we are left with midweek dump and die, or rise and shine meltup, or a third possiblility is up to max pain, sideways thru expiry, and collapse after. Unfortunately I do not have enormously strong preference for any particular option. If they are all assumed to be equal, then with two down scenarios and one up one, I would vote down after expiry not up. I do not think we get to the October lows this go around, particularly on the Naz with all those March puts stacking up. At any rate this seems messy to play, and ewave corrections are no fun if that is indeed what we are in. ng M

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