["For the first time in a long time the worlds reserve currency is being called into question and for very good reason. "]
The Gold-MegaBulls need to put this in perspective AND quickly.
USD 100 is NOT a level that brings the worlds reserve currency into question.
USD 80 is not.
USD 60-65 ?....yes; begin to make your arguement there.
Many - MANY inside the Bush ADMIN - want USD 80...as POLICY !
...as past history has shown us; we can't come out and announce this publically...but, bet your ass that a managed, controlled (read MANIPULATED/INTERVENED upon - whenever necessary) USD descent... IS - US Policy.
We need and should welcome a weaker...dollar.
...and watch if softly land around 80-85.
US Exports, our Industrial & Manufacturing Sector need it...and our Account Deficits need it.
Begin your arguement around USD 80...with 65 appearing possible.
Also; who says Gold is going to become the substitution for the USD anyway ?
All of the potential underlying catalysts for higher Gold...are just that "potential"...catalysts....NOT absolutes.
We've had a lower USD than present levels and America didn't collapse...and it should NOW be readilly apparent, that we need one and are by policy...managing its descent.
We've had HUGE Deficits before...in the Reagan era...and this is THE time to have them.
That post here about the US occupying the Iraqi Oil Fields being about a "currency" war...is not entirely offbase imho... primarially, we can NOT allow Saddam to acquire the final stage of his Nuclear Program - that's #1.
#2 - is we can't allow Saddam to use OIL as a Global Weapon of Mass-Economic Destruction.
#3 - Saddam's Oil is the worlds largest & hardest to trace Financial source for Financing Global Terrorism and it's in the hands of a madman.
#4 - is our presence solves #1, #2,#3 and also puts a little physical pressure on the Saudi's to clean up their act...and yes; does kind of raise the hardball-in your face (actually "in your backyard") meter on OPEC going to a Euro-payment (or even Gold-payment) standard in Oil.
...and remember the posts on Gold-Eagle 2+ years ago that already have spoken about some OPEC countries having been receiving payment for Oil in Gold for sometime now.
All of the potential upside catalysts for Gold that the Mega-Bulls cite - are realistic....but, "potential" as far as the odds of that individual catalyst either unfolding, or unfolding soon enough to matter, if at all... and then - to what degree they create fractures that drive Gold higher... are all constantly moving "dynamic" market forces.
America...has one helluva lot of weapons in their arsenal...both literally AND figureatively... to use before the USD becomes a Weimar Republic-esque DM, or before our Financial System ever crashes.... we've weathered Sept 11th, LTCM, Russia, The Asian Tigers, Brazil, Argentina, the original Gulf War and Clinton & Rubin selling out our future to the Investment Bankers...
We're still a mighty ship...one that may take a while to right her course....but, one that aint going down easy... if at all.
Nothing wrong with a HUI 35 to 150 run, followed by a wnd cycle of 92 to 150 and a Bullion Run from $255 to $390.
Lot's of secular/broad cycles in the past haven't produced 3.5 baggers in the gold indices, or 50% Bullion Runs.
Is this an interim cycle top - within a broader secular Mega-Bull Run ?
...that's yet to be determined...and everything that will determine the ultimate outcome - is constantly & dynamically changing.
Simply take what the market gives you...and don't miss the Forrest for the Tree's....or any 3-baggers, because you wanted the 10-bagger, or any $100 Bullion Runs, because you wanted $800+ POG again.
PS...anyone talking about those - "SDR's" ? |
