big guy re: ["I believe there is too much potential for a sudden move in the gold market due to the current environment; to be grilling people constantly for hanging on to there positions."]
...I hear what you're saying. Understand that much of the grilling is both needed and deserved; but admittedly, a bit hyperbolic at times.
I and many others, even those Commercials with massive Short's on in the Bullion Market; both acknowledge and appreciate the "potential" for a sudden move in Gold - (in BOTH directions (vbg)~
That the "potential" for a sudden move exists...is NOT at question.
It's a matter of correctly pricing both the "likliehood/possibility" of a sudden price-move occuring and then applying the correct "time value of money" discount, or premium to the expected timeframe of the individual underlying catalysts maturing, or occuring; that will lead to a sudden move in Gold.
There are no positive catalysts to Gold that anyone is ignoring here.
Where we differ, is in assessing Risk to Reward and how that dynamic sliding scale constantly changes the value proposition, how to price it and how to discount, or add a premium for the expected timeframes of the individual catalyst occurances.
What still mystifies me; is that so many failed to see a simplistic and quite expected, Flight to Safety - War/Hedge in Gold as the reason for the recent Rally in Gold.
From the point of the Oct 10th Rally-Start Point in Gold; no new significant dynamic occured in the USD, the Deficit, the Global or Domestic Economies, no new Terrorism incident, no new market lows ...nothing other than it became quite evident that America was going to War in Iraq.
A War/Hedge Rally is a "when/not if" selling/profit taking opportunity.
It wasn't ever a question of whether this War/Hedge Rally would be sold, but merely a question of how far the Rally would be allowed to run; before the earlier well positioned, already highly profitable positions in Gold, would be liquidated into the hands of the War/Hedgers & Momenteum Players.
What should have been anticipated; was resistance at where the prior HUI run rolled over - ie: HUI 150-154 and also watching for the Gold Stocks to potentially Disconnect from any corresponding positive move in Bullion.
...we got both.
3 Factors ruled this move.
1. This Rally was a War/Hedge - Momenteum Run.
2. We did indeed rollover once again - at the prior HUI resistance levels of last May/June 2002.
3. The Gold Stocks did disconnect from Bullion and failed to follow the Metal to new highs.
...sadly it appears not only nearly ALL of the Gold-Bull Web Sites; but the vast majority of individual Gold Investors...missed identifying & anticipating all 3 of the above key issue's.
That's the key point of my "Grilling" of late... |
