Jim,
I sincerely doubt we are anywhere near a bottom here except a very short term tradeable rally, which may be as short as a couple of days in February (of which this may be the first). If this is a rally, it will be a great rally to sell, rather than buy, imho.
My prediction remains, despite some possible short term noise upwards, that first we take out the July lows, then the October lows. It will be accompanied by a sharp spike in New Lows, something that accompanied the July and October bottoms. Similarly, it will also see a sharp spike in the VIX.
Now, as to time frame, my crystal ball is still very cloudy as to whether the big tuna melt can come in the spring or wait until summer, but you'll know it's here by the crying of the children and the blood flowing through the streets.
Good luck all, and stay nimble,
Kb |
