Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (28920)	2/19/2003 3:18:25 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Dow stocks -most of the Dow stocks are U.S. based heavy exporters (Wal-Mart being the biggest importer). A lower U.S. dollar is likely to help profits enormously. Part of that is overseas profits being higher due to the Euro improving over the dollar. Another contribuiton is U.S. overhead costs in dollars (management, R&D, and other stuff) which is assigned to overseas subsidiaries. Those costs drop, leaving more profit. I believe some of this already showed up at Eastman Kodak. The Drug companies, JNJ and Merck, tend to get a big benefit from the lower dollar. JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) will also make another 1 Billion + profit from the new drug coated stent. Should boost total profits by about 15%. With the way the yield curve is, both Citibank and JP Morgan should have some bigger profits, especially if JPM has wound down their gold carry deals. >>>>I think the general idea of a market drop is correct, but the Dow stocks are a very select universe, and may lead the recovery.

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