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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 680.28

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Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (83686)	2/19/2003 3:55:29 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Demographics & the Stock Market: While my own formula is proprietary, I can tell you that there's pretty strong evidence that periods with a positive imbalance between the # of people entering their 40s vs the number entering their 60s are generally characterized by bull market conditions. Periods where the above situation is inverted generally are relatively weak. The momentum factor is also important. A few examples: Immigration Adjusted Birth Rate bottomed in the mid-30s; the Stock Market bottomed in the mid-70s. The Immig Adj Birth Rate rocketed upward from 45 thru 47; the Stock Market rose strongly from 85 thru 87. Harry Dent's books: The Roaring 2000s, and the Roaring 2000s Investor contain valuable data and some sound principles relevant to the economy, but I don't agree with Dent's Stock Market projections, based on 46.5 as the key age. It's pretty obvious by now that his projection of a secular bull market continuing thru the middle of this decade was just plain wrong.

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