Frank, your view on crude oil seems in line with many who believe in a war of very short duration (though possibly more than 100 hours), which would result in a short peak for crude oil prices, followed by a lengthy decline, somewhat similar to 1991.
Personally, I doubt that it will be a short war, having worked in that area, and having devoted a good deal of my college education to the study of Arab language and history. I see possibly a short military campaign followed by a war of attrition--sniper attacks, etc., similar to Stalingrad in 1942. If that were to be the scenario, then I think oil prices would remain high, gold prices would soar, and the stock market would look sad for a good long time.
Art |
