An Optimist view and expectations:
Iraq's secular Moslem society makes them pragmatists and will be much more supportive in the potential liberalization of the economy. The secularism is an overriding factor when facing a choice and actually presented with the opportunity to choose between a suppressive versus the freer enterprise system. For seculars the decision would be simple.
The inner circle has started to crumble. The house arrest of the defense minister was a tell-tale sign of the instability. Another close associate of the inner circle disappeared while on a financial mission to Lebanon (Cannot find confirmation on this). The 200,000 to 300,000-strong armed forces only look big in number. They are mostly conscripted (drafted) and can be expected to make practical choice when the time comes. The rank-and-files are much more ready to abandon their units and switch side when the time comes to choose what’s better for their future. For sure they do not have jihad ideology in their mind. Instead, they have Black Label and Mercedes in mind, or the HumVees when they start seeing them a mile away.
Iraq's 25 million population would greatly benefit from the oil revenue, even at $15/ barrel. That’s in addition to the economic benefits they can reap from the rich Tigris-Euphrates river valley. However, it will require a benevolent leader surrounded by uncorrupt natural resources and funds managers.
The delays in starting the action have been worthwhile time of reflection. The Iraqis have time to evaluate the past and present, and anticipate the future. Being pragmatists as they are, I expect they will welcome the change, if only they can survive through the military action. The civilians’ biggest worry is whether they will live through the war. The oil revenue distributed to the population is less likely to end up in charities for religious schools and quedas groups.
I expect there will be some defections on day 1 and massive defections by day 5. The road to Baghdad will be cleared in much the same way as what transpired in Afghanistan. There is 50-50 chance that defenders of Baghdad will surrender, particularly after they have seen the massive defections.
The next five and subsequent years of a new Iraq is more difficult to envision because so many factors to consider and my unfamiliarity with them. Trust and faith must be given to pragmatism and secularism, for they are the seeds for a rational society and economic growth. Iraqi society possesses the fundamental requirements to create a modern society. They had it once before and they can recapture it again.
GWBush will carry this success story to the 2004 re-election. In 2008 or thereafter, he may well be elected President of Iraq by popular vote, and be named Mullah or Ayatollah Bush. |
