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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: LindyBill who wrote (75630)2/19/2003 2:47:57 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
It won't be that "Binary," as John would say. A more "Nuanced" version would be that the UN and NATO will becomes less important, and we assemble an alliance of willing Democracies to join us in the "4th World War." The UN, as usual, will come running after us to get on the bandwagon.

Interesting post, Bill. My take is that the Bush folk are convinced they must cram an Iraqi invasion into this year because of US election cycles. They will attack Iraq sometime this spring and live with the alliance consequences.

My own take is that they will have very little strong support--Britain, Spain, Italy; small country weak support; very little overt support from Arab countries. Almost everything in terms of public support will follow from how that invasion goes. With one caveat. If it goes well, they will still leave a much larger residue of strong anti-Bush, perhaps even anti-American sentiment around the globe than they found when they came into office. Whether it's worth it or not will take some time to tell.
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