<China has NO desire, whatsoever, to dominant others>
Let's review a little history:
Since the Revolution:
Korea-war 1950s
Soviet Union 1960 major battle, along Amur river
India 1960 I think, they grabbed some land on India's northern frontier, and have never given it back
Vietnam- around 1978, they sent an army into Vietnam, I forget why
Spratly islands in the South China Sea -occupied by China, 1980s?, claimed by several other nations
And that's a nearly complete list of all their neighbors. The only bordering nation they haven't invaded is Burma.
Oh, yes, and they make regular threats to retake Taiwan by force. The only thing that stops them is the U.S. Navy.
So, to sum up: For the last 50 years, they've been bullying and threatening all their neighbors; they have a habit of resorting to force to achieve their national aims.
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Here's one scenario re N. Korea:
1. N Korea develops nukes, and the missiles to deliver them, and proves it by testing them.
2. Their neighbors (S. Korea, Japan, maybe Taiwan as well), decide they need nukes too.
3. A regional Cold War develops, complete with an arms race and MAD doctrine. NE Asia becomes as Chock-Full-O'-nukes as Germany during the Cold War.
That's the optimistic scenario, which assumes nobody does anything stupid, nobody paints themselves into a corner, nobody miscalculates how the other side(s) will react. |
