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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 231.94

+0.1%

Jan 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (93384)	2/19/2003 11:44:58 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Re: The Empire Strikes Back With a 32-bit chip? Yamhill would be scary, but this thing is just sooo yesterday's news. Right now, Intel is betting that AMD can't make 64-bit chips in volume, and that they can't find anyone else to help them out with foundry FAB space (and at least as far as UMC is concerned, it looks like Intel was right). The jury is most definitely still out on whether or not AMD can produce 10+ million 64-bit chips in a quarter (or 1+ million 64-bit chips in a quarter). But if AMD can make those chips (or get IBM to make them), then Intel could find itself in a very tight corner very quickly. I don't know if your were around for the 8-bit to sixteen bit or 16-bit to 32-bit migrations, but they happened very quickly. It took a couple of years for the past generation chips to stop selling in volume, but ASPs on the last generation chips had completely collapsed within 12 to 18 months. And too many people have now heard the 286? That's only for servers! line too many times, for it to take as long, for this transition. 386? That's only for servers - no one will need 32-bits in a desktop computer for decades! Intel revenue is based upon it being able to sell 10's of millions of chips for an average of $150+ each. And then get high end pricing for support chips and motherboards that those chips plug into. It'll be interesting to see how Intel does if the ASPs for their chips drop to $50 (32-bits? That's entry level!) and no one will pay more than $20 for one of their chipsets. Likely? I'm afraid not. A reasonable chance? Yep!

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