Hi Tenchusatsu, RE: "Translation: He and/or his peers have already bought a bunch of INTC, and they now believe it's a good time to go public with their bullishness. Cynical, I know, plus I agree with his long-term comments. It's just the next few months that I'm scared of."
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Mabye just a tad too cynical? I may be naive, but I sure don't think these guys do that. A person can make more money through an honest living, than doing something they shouldn't be doing. Don't let a handful of bad people out of the thousands and thousands of excellent companies make you cynical. The bad cases are truly an exception, not the rule.
My brother is a gov't economist with a focus in a particular industry. He has restrictive trading, just like an analyst probably has. And I can definitely tell you for a fact that this costs him in a negative way. He can't even invest in the industry he's an expert on. Can you believe it?
Because of the huge administrative headache in investing (and maybe the political headache, I don't know), he doesn't bother to invest in stocks and avoids them totally even outside of his industry. Can you believe it? I was really concerned about that, so as a holiday present, I gave him some money as a gift so he would finally buy himself some plain vanilla mutual funds (which he can do) to at least get him in the market. Even a mutual fund he has to report. He's all bonds or real estate. We're as opposite as day & night. He's more conservative. (I personally think being conservative has more risks.)
I totally avoid the topic of his work. The only thing I can see about his work, is he's been working a lot of long hours. My WAG is it's related to the financial impact of the war, though I of course don't know and wouldn't be rude enough to ask.
I would bet you the s/c stock analysts can't invest in the semiconductor industry either.
RE: "next few months that I'm scared of."
I don't see business getting any worse than 9/11, but tend to feel we're going to see some hurt in Q1. I wouldn't worry though. I heard on the radio that military analysts seem to think the war will take 6 months. Maybe we could have a recovery in time for the holiday season - who knows.
But I think there are bigger costs than financial. These are not good times.
Regards,
Amy J |
