Paul:
This is nothing but a seat of the pants comment, but as much as I'm somewhat bullish long term on the cruise industry, I'm skeptical from a personal perspective. We (five of us) are scheduled to cruise on 3/16, that may be the time that war breaks out. We have talked about what we would do in that instance, or maybe that would be decided for us (i.e. cancellation, in the worst case). We could back out, and face a relatively small, but not insignificant, penalty, as we have insurance. This we are considering. I suspect we are not the only ones.
To show you my mind set, I am a big long time bull on LUV, and have done very well on the long side in the past. I tried to grab a short on LUV the other day at a higher price.
I just don't think that being long in the travel business is where you want to be in the current climate.
Another factor with RCL is its significant exposure to the European market in the summer, which is very soft - Princess has already repositioned one of its mega-ships (I believe Grand Princess) from Europe to the Caribbean.
Overcapacity via large new build activity has been well documented, as well.
Just my .02. And, were the current climate to lift, you very well might have great long positions. |
